A sharp swerve to avoid a merging car, or perhaps the need to brake heavily when a vehicle ahead stops suddenly. What about that heart-in-throat moment when a pedestrian steps out unexpectedly? If you've experienced any of these scenarios recently, you're not alone – in fact, up to 60% of Australian drivers report having to hit the brakes, or take avoiding action at least once every week.
These near-misses represent a neglected cause for concern on our roads. While they don't appear in official statistics on traffic accidents, these close calls offer crucial insights into road safety patterns and the psychology behind our driving behaviors. Through closely analysing such precarious moments, it may be that we can furnish ourselves with a toolset on how to be better prepared; a cautionary tale to prevent potential crashes.
The outlook is fairly dismal in Queensland, where a total of 303 road deaths were recorded in 2024, the highest it has been in 15 years. Compare this with the 47 fatalities which were recorded by late March alone and all signs point to another devastating year ahead.
The Psychology of Near-Misses
A near-miss is all too often not treated with the seriousness it deserves, with some drivers wishing to brush such occurrences off as another customary part of being on the roads. But what if we were to reassess it? Could it not be thought of as a critical warning signal that often goes unheeded due to how our brains process risk?
Let’s face it, when we repeatedly experience dangerous situations without negative consequences, we begin to lessen the risk-factor. This phenomenon is known as "risk normalisation" and is particularly relevant because, you guessed it, it leads to more dangerous roads. Each time we swerve to avoid a potential crash, instead of giving merit to the danger, our brains often registers it as positive confirmation of our ability to drive well.
You may have heard of “cognitive bias”, and this is exactly what’s at play here: the more near-misses we survive, the more invincible we feel. Instead of thinking, "I almost crashed, I should drive more carefully," many drivers subconsciously conclude, "I avoided a crash, so I must be an excellent driver." This circuitous thinking is like a vicious circle which can have grave consequences.
Queensland’s road safety campaigns try to play off this well-understood false confidence. It comes off the back of strong evidence that drivers very often underestimate their risk levels when driving and fail to appreciate the cumulative effect of such dangers, like persistently steering clear of accidents but not being able to mentally keep track of such incidents. One clear take away from all this is that, despite drivers being aware of the risks of dangerous driving, they persist – reinforcing this psychological blindspot.
Let’s Get Some Context
The statistics are nothing short of sobering. As alluded to above, after years of declining road fatalities, Queensland has experienced a disturbing reverse in the trend.
"Before Covid, road fatalities were trending down and if we remained on that path, fatalities would be tracking below 200 per year," notes Joshua Cooney, General Manager of Advocacy at RACQ. Instead, "at the current rate, we are heading towards another unacceptably high number of road crash fatalities in 2025 of around 300 deaths.”
Alongside possible psychological factors, this crisis appears to be linked to shifting attitudes toward road safety in general. As Cooney observes, "Queenslanders' attitudes towards road safety seem to be getting worse, extreme driving is increasing, and more people are choosing to deliberately break the road rules."
Transport and Main Roads data echoes this, showing a significant increase in deaths involving speeding and impaired driving. If we break down the statistics: in 2023, speed was a factor in 89 deaths (32% of road fatalities) – 21 more deaths than the five-year average between 2018 and 2022. This represents a 31.7% increase in speed-related deaths.
So, what happened here to move from a near-miss to a genuine catastrophe where lives were lost? Let’s dive into some of the mechanics involved.
The Anatomy of a Near-Miss
What exactly happens during those seconds as disaster looms but is narrowly avoided? Understanding this – the mechanics of near-misses – should help us to prevent them from becoming real crashes in the future. So what can increase the chance of such occurrences?
The "Fatal Five" – speeding, fatigue, distraction (including mobile phone use), not wearing seatbelts, and driving under the influence of either alcohol or drugs – are the leading causes of both crashes and near misses.
The effects of each can be broken down as follows: speed-related near-misses occur when excessive velocity leaves insufficient time to react, while fatigue-related incidents often involve microsleeps or delayed responses. Distraction-related near-misses typically result from divided attention and late hazard recognition, and substance-impaired near-misses stem from compromised judgment and slower reaction times. All can be fatal.
Different demographic groups experience and respond to these scenarios differently. Young male drivers (aged 17-39) are overrepresented in both speeding offenses and fatal crashes for example. Transport and Main Roads data shows that 90% of speed-related fatalities involve men, and more than half occur in regional areas.
Despite these patterns being understood and accepted and forming a key focus for current road safety strategies within Queensland, understanding the psychological toll of frequent near-misses is seen as more of a challenge. The real question perhaps should navigate around the “Fatal Five” – how can we ensure the minimal impact of any of these scenarios? And, more importantly, how can we guard against the cumulative impact of such situations which can lead to overwhelm, driver stress and anxiety?
Defensive Driving: What Can Be Done?
The good news is that most near-misses can be prevented through defensive driving techniques that allow for greater safety on our roads.
The "Three-Second Rule" is among the most effective strategies endorsed by road safety experts, which provides a simple method for maintaining a safe following distance. It goes like this:
- Identify a fixed object that the vehicle ahead passes, like a sign or a group of trees
- Count "one thousand and one, one thousand and two, one thousand and three"
- If you reach the same fixed object before finishing the count, you should try to back off and increase your distance to the car in fron
If it’s bad weather, consider extending this to four or even five seconds.
Scanning, Slowing-down and the Dangers of Distraction
As drivers, we are constantly scanning our surroundings. But, how we do it is crucial. This is why experts advocate the "12-second visual lead time rule." The idea is that we not only focus on what is in front of us, but we widen our perspective to our entire traffic environment – the bus that’s about to pull in up ahead, the woman waiting to cross with her stroller. In other words, we think where we’ll be in 12 seconds time and react accordingly.
It goes without saying, but it’s time to take your foot off the gas and slow it down some. After all, exceeding speed limits is the leading contributor to fatal crashes. A recent Department of Transport and Main Roads survey found that over half of all drivers speed on a regular basis (at least 50% of the time), with a higher incidence among young drivers.
Getting easily distracted? Distraction avoidance, along with the rules above, completes the defensive driving toolkit. Thankfully, Queensland law prohibits the use of handheld mobile phones while driving, with significant penalties for violations, so it is definitely a big “no, no”. But you may also want to consider some of the below:
- Do-not-disturb mode before setting off
- Preparing playlists and navigation before moving
- Using voice commands for essential functions
- Performing a "cockpit check" routine before driving – comfy seat? Mirrors where you need them?
At the heart of this is the need to be proactive – actively looking for potential hazards, as compared with reactive – making an unplanned and last-ditch attempt when coming face-to-face with danger.
Limits to Individual Decisions and the Need for Systemic Solutions
While individual driving behavior is important, systemic solutions must be considered equally important. Improvements to infrastructure, for example, can significantly reduce near-miss incidents. The Queensland Road Safety Strategy identifies road design enhancements – such as safer intersections, better signage, and median barriers – as key to reducing both near-misses and crashes.
Alongside this is the need to ensure road-users are, to put it simply, following the law. Joel Tucker, Road Safety and Technical Manager at RACQ, notes that "The biggest law and order problem in Queensland is unfolding on our roads – it's evident in the number of offences, deaths and serious injuries.”
To address this, the RACQ has proposed three key areas:
1. Greater detection:
- Significantly increasing random roadside tests, particularly saliva drug tests
- Mandatory roadside drug tests after crashes
- Increasing the amount of police on the roads
- Increasing point-to-point speed cameras in crash hotspots
2. Greater consequences:
- Targeting speeding, and drink and drug driving
- Expanding impoundment sanctions or immobilisation for serious or multiple offences
- Increasing individual accountability for cars registered to a business
3. Education and awareness:
- Continuing campaigns like the Queensland Government's "No excuse for speeding"
- Promoting the defensive driving techniques already mentioned above
- Addressing the psychological factors that normalise risky driving
As Cooney emphasises, "This is not about increasing fines, clearly that hasn't worked, it's about rethinking how we ensure motorists who choose to break the road rules are held accountable."
Technology also offers promising solutions. Advanced driver assistance systems like autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warnings can help prevent near-misses from becoming crashes. Also, dashcams can offer accountability and the chance to learn from driving errors. In a recent survey, 70% of Queensland drivers supported their mandatory installation.
Also read: Is Australia's Vision Zero Plan for Road Safety by 2050 Achievable?
From Near-Miss to Never-Miss
The journey from experiencing frequent near-misses to preventing them entirely begins with changing how we think about these incidents.
Rather than dismissing close calls as non-events, we should view them as crucial learning opportunities – free lessons that highlight the importance of maintaining safe driving margins and attention. Each close call isn't a testament to our skill but a warning about our vulnerability, and potentially about our lack of skill.
Queensland's weekly road fatality statistics, tracked and published by the Department of Transport and Main Roads, serve as a sobering reminder of what happens when near-misses become actual collisions. By creating greater safety margins through defensive driving techniques, supporting systemic reforms, and adopting new technologies, we can help reverse the concerning trend of road fatalities.
"Drivers need to feel they will get caught if they decide to do the wrong thing, and that the consequences for breaking road rules are significant," says Cooney. But beyond enforcement, creating a culture where near-misses are recognised as serious warning signs could be our most powerful tool in preventing the next tragedy on Queensland's roads.
The next time you experience that heart-stopping moment of narrowly avoiding disaster on the road, remember – it's not just a close call. It's a crucial message about how we drive and how we can make our roads safer for everyone.
